Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SK Beveren.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat SK Beveren 4-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.95 xG and SK Beveren 1.04 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.31 / defence 0.90 against SK Beveren attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 58% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 20%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 56%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

SK Beveren's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.81 PPG, SK Beveren 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights