Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elindus Arena plays host to Zulte Waregem versus SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Zulte Waregem. A 1.30 PPG lead over SK Beveren (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus SK Beveren 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 56% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.95 xG and SK Beveren 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.308 / defence 0.900 | SK Beveren attack 0.813 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.428. Zulte Waregem carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Zulte Waregem games / 43 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 58% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 20%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | SK Beveren 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 70% | SK Beveren 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 58% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.95 / SK Beveren 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.308 / def 0.900 | SK Beveren attack 0.813 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SK Beveren xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Zulte Waregem 4 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren part of?
Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 58% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.31) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.81x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.60
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.00
1.04
SK Beveren xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.04 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 23W 9D 11L from 43 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 15L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.44 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Beveren's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.37 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or SK Beveren away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.52 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren?
From 5 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 57%, SK Beveren 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Zulte Waregem) and 48% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 38%; Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 33% of games; SK Beveren in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 38% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 48% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat SK Beveren 4-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.95 xG and SK Beveren 1.04 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.31 / defence 0.90 against SK Beveren attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 58% | Draw 22% | SK Beveren 20%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 56%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.81 PPG, SK Beveren 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.