Standard Liège II 1-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liège II vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liège II versus Dender in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liège II at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dender (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Dender have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Standard Liège II, 1.40 for Dender — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Standard Liège II lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Standard Liège II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Standard Liège II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 67% versus Dender 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 75% | Dender 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 0.98 xG and Dender 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.905 / defence 1.434 | Dender attack 0.918 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.428. Dender's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Standard Liège II games / 12 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 19% | Draw 22% | Dender 58%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Dender 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Dender (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liège II 100% | Dender 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 19% | Draw 22% | Dender 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Standard Liège II 0.98 / Dender 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.905 / def 1.434 | Dender attack 0.918 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Dender (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Dender xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs Dender kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Dender?
Standard Liège II 1 - 1 Dender.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Dender part of?
Standard Liège II vs Dender is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 19% chance of winning, Dender a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Standard Liège II and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Dender?
Record (1 meetings): Standard Liège II 1W | Draws 0 | Dender 0W.
What form are Standard Liège II and Dender in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dender (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Standard Liège II's attack at 0.91x the league average against Dender's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.92x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
19%
5.18
22%
4.49
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.86
1.88
Dender xG
5.18
19%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
33.97
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.88 for Dender, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liège II's recent record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 6L across 12 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Standard Liège II against 1.17 for Dender. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liège II have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 3W 2D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.17 PPG overall record — Dender travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liège II are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liège II have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and Dender in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Dender have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 1.00 PPG; Dender away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dender go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won 0-4 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liège II have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Standard Liège II
3
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 1, Dender have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Dender 4-1 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Standard Liège II, 40% for Dender — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Standard Liège II) and 0% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Dender in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Standard Liège II's games and 40% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Standard Liège II's recent games and 0% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liège II and Dender tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dender in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liège II and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liège II and Dender finished level at 1-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 0.98 xG and Dender 1.88 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dender landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.91 / defence 1.43 against Dender attack 0.92 / defence 0.72, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 19% | Draw 22% | Dender 58%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 75%, Dender 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 1.00 PPG, Dender 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.