RWDM 5-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RWDM vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RWDM host Lommel United at Edmond Machtensstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RWDM — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's home record at Edmond Machtensstadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Lommel United have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
RWDM are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, RWDM have won 2, Lommel United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
RWDM trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lommel United trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 52% versus Lommel United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 52% | Lommel United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.83 xG and Lommel United 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.184 / defence 0.687 | Lommel United attack 1.012 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.428. RWDM's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 RWDM games / 40 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 57% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 20%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Lommel United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RWDM 50% | Lommel United 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 57% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG RWDM 1.83 / Lommel United 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.184 / def 0.687 | Lommel United attack 1.012 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: RWDM (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lommel United xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Lommel United kick off?
RWDM vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Lommel United?
RWDM 5 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is RWDM vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Lommel United part of?
RWDM vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 57% chance of winning, Lommel United a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RWDM and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Lommel United?
Record (5 meetings): RWDM 2W | Draws 1 | Lommel United 2W.
What form are RWDM and Lommel United in?
RWDM (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RWDM's attack rating (1.18) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.25
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.82
0.99
Lommel United xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
3%
31.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RWDM and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for RWDM and 0.99 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, RWDM have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 20W 10D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 14W 8D 18L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RWDM are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lommel United.
Venue Form
On home soil, RWDM have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RWDM are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.45 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Lommel United in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 20W 10D 10L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Lommel United away?
RWDM's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.79 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.32 PPG.
Have RWDM or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lommel United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when RWDM won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RWDM's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
RWDM
2
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, RWDM have won 4, Lommel United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Lommel United 3-2 RWDM.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 53%, Lommel United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for RWDM and 63% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RWDM's games and 58% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of RWDM's matches and 63% of Lommel United's.
Do RWDM and Lommel United tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RWDM run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Lommel United 5-0 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.83 xG and Lommel United 0.99 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.18 / defence 0.69 against Lommel United attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 57% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 20%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 52%, Lommel United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lommel United's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.