🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lommel United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Lommel United 2-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Lommel United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.16 / defence 0.77 against Lommel United attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lommel United's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights