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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.64 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 24%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, K. Lierse S.K. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights