SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face K. Lierse S.K..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees K. Lierse S.K. travel to Freethiel Stadion to take on SK Beveren. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 9W 1D 0L at Freethiel Stadion — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SK Beveren: 8 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for K. Lierse S.K., with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with SK Beveren winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SK Beveren and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus K. Lierse S.K. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 55% | K. Lierse S.K. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.64 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.200 / defence 0.825 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.916 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.396. Data: 48 SK Beveren games / 47 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 24%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | K. Lierse S.K. 4.17. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG SK Beveren 1.64 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.200 / def 0.825 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.916 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.05
K. Lierse S.K. xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (9 meetings): SK Beveren 8W | Draws 1 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.07
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.69
1.05
K. Lierse S.K. xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
5%
21.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.05 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 29W 10D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 17W 12D 18L from 47 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against K. Lierse S.K..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (14W 6D 3L).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.28 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 29W 10D 8L in their last 47 games (2.06 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.09 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
SK Beveren
1
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 9, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 48%, K. Lierse S.K. 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 39% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play K. Lierse S.K.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 48% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SK Beveren's recent games and 39% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.64 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 24%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, K. Lierse S.K. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.