SK Beveren 2-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SK Beveren at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Deinze meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Freethielstadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Deinze have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. SK Beveren's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Deinze's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Deinze and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Deinze half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 56% and Deinze 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Deinze 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 2.19 xG and Deinze 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.366 / defence 0.869 | Deinze attack 0.728 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.484. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 SK Beveren games / 36 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 65% | Draw 20% | Deinze 15%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Deinze 6.67. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Deinze 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 65% | Draw 20% | Deinze 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG SK Beveren 2.19 / Deinze 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.366 / def 0.869 | Deinze attack 0.728 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Deinze xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Deinze kick off?
SK Beveren vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Deinze?
SK Beveren 2 - 1 Deinze.
Where is SK Beveren vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Deinze part of?
SK Beveren vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 65% chance of winning, Deinze a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SK Beveren and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Deinze?
Record (4 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 2 | Deinze 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Deinze in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Deinze (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.37x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.73x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.03
15%
6.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.12
0.94
Deinze xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
6.82
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
60.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.94 for Deinze, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 8D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (11W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.31 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 9W 2D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Deinze in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 16W 8D 12L in their last 36 games (1.56 PPG), while Deinze have gone 11W 14D 11L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Deinze away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.71 PPG; Deinze away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 4-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Deinze?
From 9 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 3, Deinze have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Deinze?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 59%, Deinze 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SK Beveren) and 53% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SK Beveren's games and 59% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of SK Beveren's matches and 53% of Deinze's.
Do SK Beveren and Deinze tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Deinze in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Deinze 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Deinze 2-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.19 xG and Deinze 0.94 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.37 / defence 0.87 against Deinze attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 65% | Draw 20% | Deinze 15%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 64%, Deinze 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.56 PPG, Deinze 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.