Dender 0-3 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host SK Beveren at Dender Football Complex in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dender — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dender have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dender have posted 0W 0D 3L at Dender Football Complex — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dender Football Complex this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, SK Beveren have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Dender in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 43% versus SK Beveren 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 29% | SK Beveren 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.11 xG and SK Beveren 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.808 / defence 1.356 | SK Beveren attack 0.974 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.588. Data: 7 Dender games / 35 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 19% | Draw 21% | SK Beveren 60%. Fair-value odds: Dender 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | SK Beveren 1.67. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dender 67% | SK Beveren 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 19% | Draw 21% | SK Beveren 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Dender 1.11 / SK Beveren 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.808 / def 1.356 | SK Beveren attack 0.974 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.588 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Dender xG
Expected Goals
2.10
SK Beveren xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs SK Beveren kick off?
Dender vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs SK Beveren?
Dender 0 - 3 SK Beveren.
Where is Dender vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs SK Beveren part of?
Dender vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 19% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dender and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and SK Beveren in?
Dender (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dender's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
19%
5.22
21%
4.72
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Dender xG
Total xG
3.21
2.10
SK Beveren xG
5.22
19%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
12%
8.13
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
2%
42.47
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Dender and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Dender and 2.10 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dender come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Dender — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dender's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 0.00 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dender
0
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Dender have won 1, SK Beveren have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Dender 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Dender and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dender at 67%, SK Beveren at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dender and 67% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 33%; Dender have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dender's games and 67% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dender's matches and 67% of SK Beveren's.
Do Dender and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Dender 0-3 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.11 xG and SK Beveren 2.10 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dender fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SK Beveren outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against SK Beveren attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 19% | Draw 21% | SK Beveren 60%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 29%, SK Beveren 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SK Beveren's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.