Seraing United 1-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Seraing United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees K. Lierse S.K. travel to Stade du Pairay to take on Seraing United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Seraing United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Seraing United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Seraing United's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Pairay this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. K. Lierse S.K. have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Seraing United) versus 1.70 (K. Lierse S.K.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Seraing United, 3 for K. Lierse S.K. and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Seraing United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Seraing United in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 52% versus K. Lierse S.K. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 48% | K. Lierse S.K. 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 1.48 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 0.898 / defence 1.042 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.827 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.347. Data: 33 Seraing United games / 34 K. Lierse S.K. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Seraing United 45% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 30%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.33. Seraing United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Seraing United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seraing United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Seraing United 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 45% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Seraing United 1.48 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 0.898 / def 1.042 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.827 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Seraing United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
K. Lierse S.K. xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Seraing United 1 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 45% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Seraing United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (6 meetings): Seraing United 1W | Draws 2 | K. Lierse S.K. 3W.
What form are Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Seraing United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Seraing United's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus Seraing United's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seraing United Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.89
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Seraing United xG
Total xG
2.65
1.16
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Seraing United and 1.16 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Seraing United's recent record stands at 8W 11D 14L from 33 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Seraing United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
K. Lierse S.K., meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 14L across 33 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seraing United on 1.06 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Seraing United have managed 5W 4D 7L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Seraing United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Early Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 8W 11D 14L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Seraing United's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 1.19 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Seraing United's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Seraing United
3
Draws
3
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 7 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Seraing United 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K.?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seraing United 62%, K. Lierse S.K. 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Seraing United) and 38% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. in 31%; K. Lierse S.K. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play K. Lierse S.K.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Seraing United's recent matches and 44% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seraing United vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Seraing United's recent games and 38% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 3, as Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.48 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 45% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 30%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 48%, K. Lierse S.K. 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seraing United 1.06 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.