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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over RWDM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat RWDM 2-4 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.07 xG and Patro Eisden 1.54 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.00 / defence 1.31 against Patro Eisden attack 0.87 / defence 0.80, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 26% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 48%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 52%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RWDM 1.66 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights