RSC Anderlecht II 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as RSC Anderlecht II welcome Beerschot VA to Lotto Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RSC Anderlecht II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's home record at Lotto Park: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (RSC Anderlecht II) versus 1.90 (Beerschot VA). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RSC Anderlecht II, 0 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with RSC Anderlecht II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RSC Anderlecht II 71% and Beerschot VA 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 71% | Beerschot VA 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.43 xG and Beerschot VA 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.929 / defence 1.012 | Beerschot VA attack 1.065 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.358. Data: 14 RSC Anderlecht II games / 14 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 36% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 38%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 50% | Beerschot VA 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 36% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.43 / Beerschot VA 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.929 / def 1.012 | Beerschot VA attack 1.065 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Beerschot VA xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA?
RSC Anderlecht II 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 36% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): RSC Anderlecht II 1W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA in?
RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RSC Anderlecht II's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus RSC Anderlecht II's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.91
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
2.90
1.46
Beerschot VA xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.46 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RSC Anderlecht II come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 5D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RSC Anderlecht II on 1.64 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RSC Anderlecht II's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 1.50 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
RSC Anderlecht II's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
RSC Anderlecht II
2
Draws
5
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, Beerschot VA have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 4-2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RSC Anderlecht II at 50%, Beerschot VA at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for RSC Anderlecht II and 83% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RSC Anderlecht II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RSC Anderlecht II have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RSC Anderlecht II play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 83% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RSC Anderlecht II vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 83% of Beerschot VA's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
RSC Anderlecht II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out RSC Anderlecht II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat RSC Anderlecht II 1-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.43 xG and Beerschot VA 1.46 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Beerschot VA attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 36% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 38%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 71%, Beerschot VA 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.64 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.