K. Lierse S.K. 2-2 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Herman Vanderpoortenstadion plays host to K. Lierse S.K. versus Excelsior Virton in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 27 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 7W 1D 2L at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — K. Lierse S.K. are significantly better at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior Virton (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in K. Lierse S.K.'s favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Excelsior Virton in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — K. Lierse S.K. lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Excelsior Virton half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 67% versus Excelsior Virton 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 64% | Excelsior Virton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 2.57 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.287 / defence 1.254 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.754 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.402. K. Lierse S.K. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Excelsior Virton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 K. Lierse S.K. games / 42 Excelsior Virton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 64% | Draw 18% | Excelsior Virton 18%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Excelsior Virton 5.56. The model has a clear lean to K. Lierse S.K. (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is K. Lierse S.K. at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Excelsior Virton 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 64% | Draw 18% | Excelsior Virton 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 2.57 / Excelsior Virton 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.287 / def 1.254 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.754 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Excelsior Virton xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton?
K. Lierse S.K. 2 - 2 Excelsior Virton.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 64% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton?
Record (5 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 1W | Draws 3 | Excelsior Virton 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.29x the league average against Excelsior Virton's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior Virton's attack (0.75x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
64%
1.56
18%
5.56
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.89
1.32
Excelsior Virton xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
8%
13.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
1%
72.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.32 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
K. Lierse S.K.'s recent record stands at 16W 10D 16L from 42 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior Virton, meanwhile, have gone 6W 12D 24L across 42 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours K. Lierse S.K. by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior Virton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, K. Lierse S.K. have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior Virton's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.88 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Excelsior Virton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 6W 12D 24L in their last 42 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Excelsior Virton away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.67 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
K. Lierse S.K.
4
Draws
1
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton?
From 6 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, Excelsior Virton have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2022, when K. Lierse S.K. 2-2 Excelsior Virton.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 67%, Excelsior Virton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 62% (Excelsior Virton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Excelsior Virton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 62% of Excelsior Virton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 62% of Excelsior Virton's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. and Excelsior Virton finished level at 2-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.57 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.32 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.29 / defence 1.25 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 64% | Draw 18% | Excelsior Virton 18%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 64%, Excelsior Virton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.