Royal Excel Mouscron 1-1 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior Virton at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton meet at Stade Le Canonnier in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Royal Excel Mouscron's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Royal Excel Mouscron have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior Virton (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Excelsior Virton are 1.00 PPG clear of Royal Excel Mouscron in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Royal Excel Mouscron half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Excelsior Virton half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Royal Excel Mouscron 50% versus Excelsior Virton 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Royal Excel Mouscron 75% | Excelsior Virton 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Royal Excel Mouscron 0.73 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.669 / defence 1.310 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.564 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.519. Royal Excel Mouscron's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Royal Excel Mouscron games / 4 Excelsior Virton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 20% | Draw 39% | Excelsior Virton 41%. Fair-value odds: Royal Excel Mouscron 5.00 | Draw 2.56 | Excelsior Virton 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior Virton as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Royal Excel Mouscron 50% | Excelsior Virton 25% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Le Canonnier • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 20% | Draw 39% | Excelsior Virton 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Royal Excel Mouscron 0.73 / Excelsior Virton 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.669 / def 1.310 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.564 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Excelsior Virton xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Le Canonnier.
What was the final score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton?
Royal Excel Mouscron 1 - 1 Excelsior Virton.
Where is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Stade Le Canonnier.
What competition is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton part of?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives Royal Excel Mouscron a 20% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 41% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton in?
Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-L-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Royal Excel Mouscron's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Excelsior Virton's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Excelsior Virton's attack (0.56x) against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
20%
5.05
39%
2.56
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Total xG
1.85
1.12
Excelsior Virton xG
5.05
20%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 17.7 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Royal Excel Mouscron and 1.12 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Royal Excel Mouscron's recent record stands at 0W 0D 4L from 4 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior Virton, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior Virton by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Royal Excel Mouscron heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Royal Excel Mouscron are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior Virton in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Royal Excel Mouscron
Early Season
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
1
Draws
1
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton?
From 4 meetings on record, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, Excelsior Virton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Excelsior Virton 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Who has won more matches between Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton?
Royal Excel Mouscron have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Excelsior Virton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Royal Excel Mouscron 50%, Excelsior Virton 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Royal Excel Mouscron) and 25% (Excelsior Virton).
On the defensive side: Royal Excel Mouscron have failed to score in 50% of games; Excelsior Virton in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Royal Excel Mouscron home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Royal Excel Mouscron play Excelsior Virton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent matches and 25% of Excelsior Virton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent games and 25% of Excelsior Virton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
Royal Excel Mouscron have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Royal Excel Mouscron and Excelsior Virton finished level at 1-1 at Stade Le Canonnier, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Royal Excel Mouscron 0.73 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.12 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.67 / defence 1.31 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.56 / defence 1.05, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Royal Excel Mouscron 20% | Draw 39% | Excelsior Virton 41%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Royal Excel Mouscron 75%, Excelsior Virton 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior Virton arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Royal Excel Mouscron conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.