Excelsior Virton 2-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yvan Georges plays host to Excelsior Virton versus Lommel United in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior Virton's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: L W D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Excelsior Virton half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Lommel United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Excelsior Virton 0% | Lommel United 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Excelsior Virton 0% | Lommel United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 0.76 xG and Lommel United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.828 / defence 1.212 | Lommel United attack 0.769 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.447. Data: 3 Excelsior Virton games / 3 Lommel United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 17% | Draw 36% | Lommel United 47%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 5.88 | Draw 2.78 | Lommel United 2.13. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 0% | Lommel United 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 17% | Draw 36% | Lommel United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Excelsior Virton 0.76 / Lommel United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.828 / def 1.212 | Lommel United attack 0.769 / def 1.045 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lommel United xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United?
Excelsior Virton 2 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 17% chance of winning, Lommel United a 47% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Lommel United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Lommel United in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D. Lommel United (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior Virton's attack rating (0.83) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (0.77x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
17%
5.75
36%
2.81
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.11
1.35
Lommel United xG
5.75
17%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
5%
22.15
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 16.4 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.35 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior Virton's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior Virton heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior Virton have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lommel United in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Excelsior Virton or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior Virton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lommel United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Excelsior Virton
0
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Lommel United?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 3, Lommel United have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Excelsior Virton 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Excelsior Virton) and 67% (Lommel United) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Excelsior Virton and 67% for Lommel United.
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lommel United in 33%; Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Excelsior Virton's recent matches and 67% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 67% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Lommel United tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Excelsior Virton defy the odds to beat Lommel United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior Virton beat Lommel United 2-1 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 0.76 xG and Lommel United 1.35 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior Virton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against Lommel United attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 17% | Draw 36% | Lommel United 47%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior Virton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 0%, Lommel United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lommel United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Excelsior Virton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior Virton scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.