Patro Eisden 3-1 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Patro Eisden have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Patrostadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lokeren-Temse's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lokeren-Temse away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lokeren-Temse arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lokeren-Temse in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Patro Eisden have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 6 meetings, with Lokeren-Temse managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Patro Eisden and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Lokeren-Temse — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 56% and Lokeren-Temse 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 51% | Lokeren-Temse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.51 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.873 / defence 0.973 | Lokeren-Temse attack 1.295 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.306. Lokeren-Temse have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Patro Eisden games / 39 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 35% | Draw 24% | Lokeren-Temse 41%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Lokeren-Temse 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Patro Eisden dominate the H2H record, yet Lokeren-Temse are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 70% | Lokeren-Temse 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 35% | Draw 24% | Lokeren-Temse 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Patro Eisden 1.51 / Lokeren-Temse 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.873 / def 0.973 | Lokeren-Temse attack 1.295 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Lokeren-Temse xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse?
Patro Eisden 3 - 1 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 35% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse?
Record (6 meetings): Patro Eisden 3W | Draws 3 | Lokeren-Temse 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Patro Eisden's attack rating (0.87) and Lokeren-Temse's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lokeren-Temse's attack (1.29x) against Patro Eisden's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
35%
2.83
24%
4.25
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.16
1.65
Lokeren-Temse xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.65 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Patro Eisden come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 10D 14L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lokeren-Temse sit at 1.41 PPG from 39 outings (14W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.41 for Lokeren-Temse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Patro Eisden's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Lokeren-Temse have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.62 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse in 72%.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 14W 13D 12L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.53 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Patro Eisden won 4-1 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lokeren-Temse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
3
Draws
0
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse?
From 7 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Patro Eisden 3-1 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 53%, Lokeren-Temse 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Patro Eisden) and 53% (Lokeren-Temse).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Lokeren-Temse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Patro Eisden's games and 63% of Lokeren-Temse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Patro Eisden's recent games and 53% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Patro Eisden and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lokeren-Temse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Lokeren-Temse 3-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.51 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.65 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.29 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 35% | Draw 24% | Lokeren-Temse 41%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 51%, Lokeren-Temse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.41 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.