🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat Francs Borains 4-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.43 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 37%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 50%, Francs Borains 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Francs Borains's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights