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Stalemate at Olympic Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 16, as Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.74 xG and Patro Eisden 1.75 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Patro Eisden landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.60 / defence 1.38 against Patro Eisden attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 14/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 61%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 50%, Patro Eisden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights