Olympic Charleroi 0-0 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Olympic Charleroi welcome Patro Eisden to Stade de la Neuville. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympic Charleroi — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Neuville, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 1D 7L this season (8 games, 0.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.12 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Neuville this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Olympic Charleroi's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 43% versus Patro Eisden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 50% | Patro Eisden 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.74 xG and Patro Eisden 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.600 / defence 1.382 | Patro Eisden attack 0.919 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.381. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.600 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Olympic Charleroi games / 43 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 61%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | Patro Eisden 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 38% | Patro Eisden 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.74 / Patro Eisden 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.600 / def 1.382 | Patro Eisden attack 0.919 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Patro Eisden xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden?
Olympic Charleroi 0 - 0 Patro Eisden.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 14% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 61% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympic Charleroi's attack at 0.60x the league average against Patro Eisden's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Olympic Charleroi's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
14%
6.91
25%
4.05
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.75
Patro Eisden xG
6.91
14%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
3%
39.90
29%
3.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.75 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympic Charleroi's recent record stands at 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 4L across 14 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Olympic Charleroi have managed 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — 0.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.64 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Patro Eisden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 games (0.64 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.17 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
1
Draws
1
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Patro Eisden 1-0 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympic Charleroi 33% BTTS, Patro Eisden 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Olympic Charleroi and 33% for Patro Eisden.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 33%; Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 67% of games; Patro Eisden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 33% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Olympic Charleroi's recent games and 33% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Olympic Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 16, as Olympic Charleroi and Patro Eisden drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.74 xG and Patro Eisden 1.75 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Patro Eisden landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.60 / defence 1.38 against Patro Eisden attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 14/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 61%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 50%, Patro Eisden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.