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Prediction vindicated as KRC Genk II edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KRC Genk II beat Olympic Charleroi 1-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 1.04 xG and KRC Genk II 2.15 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.58 / defence 1.59 against KRC Genk II attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 17% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 63%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 57%, KRC Genk II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympic Charleroi 0.57 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights