🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Francs Borains run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains beat Olympic Charleroi 0-3 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.86 xG and Francs Borains 1.31 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Francs Borains outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.53 / defence 1.34 against Francs Borains attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 21/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 25% | Draw 28% | Francs Borains 47%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 57%, Francs Borains 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Francs Borains's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympic Charleroi 0.57 PPG, Francs Borains 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights