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Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Olympic Charleroi 1-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.55 xG and Beerschot VA 1.82 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.56 / defence 1.35 against Beerschot VA attack 0.97 / defence 0.77, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 25% | Beerschot VA 66%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 42%, Beerschot VA 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights