Olympic Charleroi 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA meet at Stade de la Neuville in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Olympic Charleroi (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympic Charleroi have posted 0W 1D 6L at Stade de la Neuville — 0.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beerschot VA's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 1.70 PPG clear of Olympic Charleroi in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Beerschot VA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 33% versus Beerschot VA 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympic Charleroi 42% | Beerschot VA 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.55 xG and Beerschot VA 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.557 / defence 1.347 | Beerschot VA attack 0.966 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.397. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.557 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beerschot VA's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Olympic Charleroi games / 12 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 25% | Beerschot VA 66%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 11.11 | Draw 4.00 | Beerschot VA 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 29% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 25% | Beerschot VA 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 37% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.55 / Beerschot VA 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.557 / def 1.347 | Beerschot VA attack 0.966 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Beerschot VA xG
37%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Olympic Charleroi 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 9% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 66% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympic Charleroi's attack rating (0.56) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.97x) against Olympic Charleroi's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (15.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
9%
11.42
25%
4.01
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.5%
Away win
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.37
1.82
Beerschot VA xG
11.42
9%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
58%
1.73
Win to Nil
1%
70.31
38%
2.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.82 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Olympic Charleroi have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 3D 8L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA's form line: 8W 3D 1L from 12 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beerschot VA are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Olympic Charleroi have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 away games — 2.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.25 PPG overall record — Beerschot VA travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.42 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.58 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Beerschot VA in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 8W 3D 1L in their last 12 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.17 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Olympic Charleroi or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympic Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
0
Draws
2
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Beerschot VA 2-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Olympic Charleroi) and 50% (Beerschot VA) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Olympic Charleroi and 33% for Beerschot VA.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 50%; Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 83% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 50% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Olympic Charleroi's recent games and 33% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympic Charleroi and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Olympic Charleroi 1-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.55 xG and Beerschot VA 1.82 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.56 / defence 1.35 against Beerschot VA attack 0.97 / defence 0.77, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 25% | Beerschot VA 66%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 42%, Beerschot VA 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.