Olympic Charleroi 0-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Eupen at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Neuville plays host to Olympic Charleroi versus AS Eupen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympic Charleroi have collected 0.12 PPG across 8 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 2.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.62 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Neuville, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 0D 5L this season (5 games, 0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Eupen (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, AS Eupen have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Eupen arrive in superior form — a 1.18 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.12) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympic Charleroi have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, AS Eupen in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Olympic Charleroi — key trading statistics (8 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 75% of games.
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (8 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 25% versus AS Eupen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 62% | AS Eupen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.73 xG and AS Eupen 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.536 / defence 1.513 | AS Eupen attack 1.131 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.393. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.536 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Olympic Charleroi games / 37 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 17% | AS Eupen 74%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 11.11 | Draw 5.88 | AS Eupen 1.35. The model has a clear lean to AS Eupen (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates AS Eupen as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 20% | AS Eupen 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 17% | AS Eupen 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 47% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.73 / AS Eupen 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.536 / def 1.513 | AS Eupen attack 1.131 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
2.38
AS Eupen xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Olympic Charleroi 0 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 9% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 74% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 0W-1D-7L in 8 | 0.12 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 2.62 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympic Charleroi's attack at 0.54x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (1.13x) against Olympic Charleroi's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from 8/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
9%
10.73
17%
5.95
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
0 – 3
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.11
2.38
AS Eupen xG
10.73
9%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
9%
10.83
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
1%
116.16
36%
2.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 2.38 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympic Charleroi's recent record stands at 0W 1D 7L from 8 games, a 0.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 2L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Eupen by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympic Charleroi have managed 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Eupen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympic Charleroi have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Eupen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 games (0.12 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or AS Eupen away?
AS Eupen's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.00 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Olympic Charleroi or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympic Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
1
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, AS Eupen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AS Eupen 2-2 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympic Charleroi 20%, AS Eupen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Olympic Charleroi and 60% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 60% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Olympic Charleroi's matches and 60% of AS Eupen's.
Do Olympic Charleroi and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Eupen edge out Olympic Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat Olympic Charleroi 0-1 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.73 xG and AS Eupen 2.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.54 / defence 1.51 against AS Eupen attack 1.13 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 9% | Draw 17% | AS Eupen 74%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 62%, AS Eupen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (8 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Eupen's trading profile (8 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Eupen arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.