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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United and Patro Eisden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 23, as Lommel United and Patro Eisden drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.63 xG and Patro Eisden 1.59 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.37 / defence 1.13 against Patro Eisden attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 39% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 38%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.36 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights