Lommel United 1-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lommel United (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lommel United face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Soevereinstadion to face Lommel United in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Soevereinstadion, Lommel United have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Soevereinstadion this season.
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Lommel United. A 1.30 PPG lead over KRC Genk II (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Lommel United, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against KRC Genk II — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Lommel United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lommel United and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Lommel United half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 54% versus KRC Genk II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 52% | KRC Genk II 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.61 xG and KRC Genk II 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.247 / defence 0.900 | KRC Genk II attack 0.903 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.327. Data: 34 Lommel United games / 33 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | KRC Genk II 4.00. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 50% | KRC Genk II 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Lommel United 1.61 / KRC Genk II 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.247 / def 0.900 | KRC Genk II attack 0.903 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
KRC Genk II xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Lommel United vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?
Lommel United 1 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Lommel United vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs KRC Genk II part of?
Lommel United vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 50% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lommel United and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and KRC Genk II?
Record (8 meetings): Lommel United 6W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are Lommel United and KRC Genk II in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (1.25) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.90x) against Lommel United's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.03
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.69
1.08
KRC Genk II xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lommel United and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.08 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lommel United's recent record stands at 11W 8D 14L from 33 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 23L across 33 games — 0.55 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 4W 5D 8L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 2W 2D 13L across 17 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lommel United are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.00 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 4W 6D 23L in their last 33 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or KRC Genk II away?
Lommel United's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.00 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 0-4 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Lommel United
1
Draws
2
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and KRC Genk II?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 7, KRC Genk II have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and KRC Genk II?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 65%, KRC Genk II 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lommel United) and 65% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Lommel United's games and 53% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Lommel United's matches and 65% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Lommel United and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KRC Genk II defy the odds to beat Lommel United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.61 xG and KRC Genk II 1.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.25 / defence 0.90 against KRC Genk II attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a KRC Genk II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 52%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.