🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat KRC Genk II 2-0 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.40 xG and KRC Genk II 1.11 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KRC Genk II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against KRC Genk II attack 0.75 / defence 1.37, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 43% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 30%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 57%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.23 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights