Lommel United 1-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Deinze at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lommel United at Soeverein Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deinze away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.80 PPG versus Deinze's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Lommel United, 2 for Deinze and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Deinze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Deinze in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 53% versus Deinze 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 59% | Deinze 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.67 xG and Deinze 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.200 / defence 0.774 | Deinze attack 0.870 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.378. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Lommel United games / 52 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | Deinze 21%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Deinze 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 40% | Deinze 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | Deinze 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Lommel United 1.67 / Deinze 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.200 / def 0.774 | Deinze attack 0.870 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Deinze xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Deinze kick off?
Lommel United vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Lommel United 1 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Lommel United vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Deinze part of?
Lommel United vs Deinze is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 55% chance of winning, Deinze a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lommel United and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
Record (7 meetings): Lommel United 4W | Draws 1 | Deinze 2W.
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Deinze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.20x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.12
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.60
0.93
Deinze xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.93 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Deinze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 32W 11D 21L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Deinze's form line: 33W 9D 22L from 64 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.67 PPG, Deinze on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (18W 4D 10L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 14W 3D 15L from 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.61 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Current Season
Deinze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 32W 11D 21L in their last 64 games (1.67 PPG), while Deinze have gone 33W 9D 22L in their last 64 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Deinze away?
Lommel United's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.81 PPG; Deinze away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Deinze in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Deinze?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Deinze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Deinze?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 47%, Deinze 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 53% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Deinze in 31%; Deinze in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lommel United's recent matches and 47% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lommel United's recent games and 53% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Deinze tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Deinze in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and Deinze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United and Deinze finished level at 1-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.67 xG and Deinze 0.93 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.20 / defence 0.77 against Deinze attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | Deinze 21%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 59%, Deinze 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Deinze's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.67 PPG, Deinze 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.