Deinze 2-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dakota Arena plays host to Deinze versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Deinze's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deinze have posted 5W 3D 2L at Dakota Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Patro Eisden have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Deinze, 1 for Patro Eisden and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 4–0 with Deinze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Deinze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Patro Eisden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 58% versus Patro Eisden 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 61% | Patro Eisden 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.29 xG and Patro Eisden 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.342 / defence 1.024 | Patro Eisden attack 0.581 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.377. Deinze carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Patro Eisden's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Deinze games / 30 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 48% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 24%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Patro Eisden 4.17. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 80% | Patro Eisden 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 48% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Deinze 1.29 / Patro Eisden 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.342 / def 1.024 | Patro Eisden attack 0.581 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Deinze (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Patro Eisden xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Deinze vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Deinze 2 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is Deinze vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Patro Eisden part of?
Deinze vs Patro Eisden is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 48% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Deinze and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Patro Eisden?
Record (3 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 1W.
What form are Deinze and Patro Eisden in?
Deinze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deinze's attack at 1.34x the league average against Patro Eisden's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.58x) against Deinze's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 52/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.48
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.11
0.82
Patro Eisden xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Deinze and 0.82 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deinze come into this having played 31 games, going 17W 5D 9L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Deinze against 1.65 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Deinze's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.29 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Current Season
Patro Eisden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 17W 5D 9L in their last 31 games (1.81 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 14W 9D 8L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Patro Eisden away?
Deinze's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 2.07 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Deinze or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
2
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Patro Eisden?
From 5 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Patro Eisden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Patro Eisden 3-1 Deinze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 67%, Patro Eisden 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Deinze) and 33% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Deinze keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 60%; Patro Eisden in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Deinze's recent matches and 27% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Deinze's recent games and 33% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out Patro Eisden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Patro Eisden 2-1 at Dakota Arena, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.29 xG and Patro Eisden 0.82 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Patro Eisden attack 0.58 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 48% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 24%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 61%, Patro Eisden 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.81 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.