🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Lokeren-Temse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Lokeren-Temse 1-2 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 2.33 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against SK Beveren attack 1.54 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights