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Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 24, as Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.67 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.95 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 47% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 29%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 50%, Olympic Charleroi 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights