🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lommel United edge out Lokeren-Temse 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Lokeren-Temse 2-3 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.31 xG and Lommel United 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lommel United outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Lommel United attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 35% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 39%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 45%, Lommel United 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 1.47 PPG, Lommel United 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights