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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 17, as Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.72 xG and KRC Genk II 1.18 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.16 / defence 1.15 against KRC Genk II attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 50% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 26%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights