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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out Olympic Charleroi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Olympic Charleroi 2-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 32, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.75 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 25%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 41%, Olympic Charleroi 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights