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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liège run riot with a 5-0 hammering of KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat KRC Genk II 5-0 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.18 xG and KRC Genk II 1.26 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against KRC Genk II attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 34% | Draw 29% | KRC Genk II 38%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Liège win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 53%, KRC Genk II 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Liège (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights