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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KAA Gent II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Liège.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II beat Liège 0-2 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 2.03 xG and KAA Gent II 1.45 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Liège fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.43 / defence 0.99 against KAA Gent II attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 49% | Draw 26% | KAA Gent II 25%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a KAA Gent II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 36%, KAA Gent II 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

KAA Gent II's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with KAA Gent II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights