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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liège cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat Francs Borains 3-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.70 xG and Francs Borains 1.06 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Liège beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Francs Borains attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 24%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 53%, Francs Borains 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liège's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liège 1.40 PPG, Francs Borains 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights