Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Liège at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liège vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Francs Borains travel to Stade de Rocourt to take on Liège. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Liège stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Liège, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Rocourt, Liège have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Francs Borains — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Liège 1.60 PPG, Francs Borains 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Liège, 2 for Francs Borains and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Francs Borains winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Liège in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 53% versus Francs Borains 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 53% | Francs Borains 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.70 xG and Francs Borains 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 1.090 / defence 0.952 | Francs Borains attack 0.819 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Liège games / 47 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 24%. Fair-value odds: Liège 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 4.17. Liège hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liège are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liège offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Liège 40% | Francs Borains 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): Liège 2W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 2W • Goals trend: 2.20 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Liège 5 – 6 Francs Borains • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Liège 40% / Draw 20% / Francs Borains 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 52% / draw 24% / away 24% • Goals: H2H average 2.20/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.76 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Liège (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W • Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W • Liège home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 3 • Francs Borains away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Liège 1.60 PPG vs Francs Borains 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Liège): Poisson xG of 1.70 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Francs Borains): Poisson xG of 1.06 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.76 (52% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Liège 1.70 / Francs Borains 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 1.090 / def 0.952 | Francs Borains attack 0.819 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Liège (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Francs Borains xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs Francs Borains kick off?
Liège vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs Francs Borains?
Liège 3 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Liège vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs Francs Borains part of?
Liège vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 52% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Liège and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Francs Borains?
• Record (5 meetings): Liège 2W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 2W • Goals trend: 2.20 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Liège 5 – 6 Francs Borains • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Liège 40% / Draw 20% / Francs Borains 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 52% / draw 24% / away 24% • Goals: H2H average 2.20/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.76 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Liège and Francs Borains in?
• Liège (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W • Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W • Liège home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 3 • Francs Borains away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Liège 1.60 PPG vs Francs Borains 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Liège): Poisson xG of 1.70 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Francs Borains): Poisson xG of 1.06 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.76 (52% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Liège vs Francs Borains?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture