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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KRC Genk II and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KRC Genk II and SK Beveren finished level at 3-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.26 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.32 against SK Beveren attack 0.71 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 73%, SK Beveren 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights