KRC Genk II 3-3 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 39%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host SK Beveren at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
SK Beveren's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for KRC Genk II, 3 for SK Beveren and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended KRC Genk II 2–3 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 71% versus SK Beveren 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 73% | SK Beveren 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.003 / defence 1.322 | SK Beveren attack 0.706 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.353. SK Beveren's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 49 games and SK Beveren's last 48.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.60 | Draw 3.63 | SK Beveren 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 70% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.36 / SK Beveren 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.003 / def 1.322 | SK Beveren attack 0.706 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.26
SK Beveren xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
KRC Genk II 3 - 3 SK Beveren.
Where is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren part of?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 39% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KRC Genk II and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 49 games and SK Beveren's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
39%
2.60
28%
3.63
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.62
1.26
SK Beveren xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.26 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 10D 26L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 19W 13D 16L from 48 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.09 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 4D 12L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 8W 6D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.27 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.09 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.30 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 17 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won SK Beveren 3-0 KRC Genk II.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 December 2025: KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 70%, SK Beveren 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for KRC Genk II and 48% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 44%; SK Beveren in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 35% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of KRC Genk II's matches and 48% of SK Beveren's.
Do KRC Genk II and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 70% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and SK Beveren finished level at 3-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.26 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.32 against SK Beveren attack 0.71 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 73%, SK Beveren 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.