KRC Genk II 3-3 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 39%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host SK Beveren at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Leunen, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at De Leunen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 71% versus SK Beveren 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 73% | SK Beveren 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.003 / defence 1.322 | SK Beveren attack 0.706 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.353. Data: 49 KRC Genk II games / 48 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | SK Beveren 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 70% | SK Beveren 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG KRC Genk II 1.36 / SK Beveren 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.003 / def 1.322 | SK Beveren attack 0.706 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.26
SK Beveren xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
KRC Genk II 3 - 3 SK Beveren.
Where is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren part of?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 39% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KRC Genk II and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
Record (5 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 3W.
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
39%
2.60
28%
3.63
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.62
1.26
SK Beveren xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.26 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 10D 26L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 19W 13D 16L from 48 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.27 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.09 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.30 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
From 8 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 70%, SK Beveren 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for KRC Genk II and 48% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 44%; SK Beveren in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 35% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of KRC Genk II's matches and 48% of SK Beveren's.
Do KRC Genk II and SK Beveren tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and SK Beveren finished level at 3-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.26 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.32 against SK Beveren attack 0.71 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 39% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 73%, SK Beveren 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.