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Shock result as Olympic Charleroi defy the odds to beat KRC Genk II 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympic Charleroi beat KRC Genk II 3-4 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.26 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympic Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 31% | Olympic Charleroi 32%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Olympic Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 62%, Olympic Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KRC Genk II arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with Olympic Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights