KRC Genk II 3-4 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympic Charleroi make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cegeka Arena this season.
Olympic Charleroi's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in KRC Genk II's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 62% versus Olympic Charleroi 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 62% | Olympic Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.26 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.943 / defence 1.219 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.687 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.359. Data: 41 KRC Genk II games / 13 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 31% | Olympic Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Olympic Charleroi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 60% | Olympic Charleroi 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 31% | Olympic Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG KRC Genk II 1.26 / Olympic Charleroi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.943 / def 1.219 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.687 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Olympic Charleroi xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi?
KRC Genk II 3 - 4 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 38% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.94) and Olympic Charleroi's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympic Charleroi's attack (0.69x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 41/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.26
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.40
1.14
Olympic Charleroi xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.14 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 9L across 13 games — 0.46 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KRC Genk II by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympic Charleroi's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.46 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KRC Genk II are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.46 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Olympic Charleroi's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.80 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
1
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Olympic Charleroi 1-2 KRC Genk II.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 60%, Olympic Charleroi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (KRC Genk II) and 40% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Olympic Charleroi in 40%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 40% of games; Olympic Charleroi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Olympic Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 40% of Olympic Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 40% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympic Charleroi defy the odds to beat KRC Genk II 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympic Charleroi beat KRC Genk II 3-4 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.26 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympic Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 31% | Olympic Charleroi 32%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Olympic Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 62%, Olympic Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KRC Genk II arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with Olympic Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.