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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over KRC Genk II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat KRC Genk II 0-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.86 xG and Lommel United 2.46 xG, a combined 4.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.11 / defence 1.37 against Lommel United attack 1.31 / defence 1.24, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 29% | Draw 19% | Lommel United 51%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 72%, Lommel United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KRC Genk II's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lommel United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.65. That form edge translated into the three points. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights