KRC Genk II 2-3 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours K. Lierse S.K. — this KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
KRC Genk II (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KRC Genk II's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for KRC Genk II, 0.80 for K. Lierse S.K. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to K. Lierse S.K., who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended KRC Genk II 1–2 K. Lierse S.K. — a K. Lierse S.K. win.
The H2H data backs the away side. K. Lierse S.K. have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 60% versus K. Lierse S.K. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 68% | K. Lierse S.K. 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.39 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.007 / defence 1.114 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.917 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.349. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 53 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 53.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 37%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.66 | Draw 3.93 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 50% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.39 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.007 / def 1.114 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.917 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.38
K. Lierse S.K. xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
KRC Genk II 2 - 3 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 38% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (1.01) and K. Lierse S.K.'s defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.92x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 53 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.93
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.77
1.38
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.38 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II come into this having played 53 games, going 9W 10D 34L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (17W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
K. Lierse S.K. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KRC Genk II's home form reads 6W 4D 16L across their last 26 home games, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 6D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs K. Lierse S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 9W 10D 34L in their last 53 games (0.70 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.85 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K., the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: K. Lierse S.K. have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won KRC Genk II 4-1 K. Lierse S.K. on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
6
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K.?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: KRC Genk II 2-3 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K.?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 58%, K. Lierse S.K. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (KRC Genk II) and 42% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 31% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 50% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 42% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 77% of K. Lierse S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat KRC Genk II 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat KRC Genk II 2-3 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.39 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 37%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 68%, K. Lierse S.K. 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.