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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Seraing United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Seraing United 1-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.82 xG and Seraing United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Seraing United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Seraing United attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 15/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 55% | Draw 24% | Seraing United 21%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 61%, Seraing United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Seraing United's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights