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Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Olympic Charleroi 3-1 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 2.23 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.18 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.42 / defence 0.92 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 61% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 19%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 48%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights