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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympic Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KAA Gent II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympic Charleroi beat KAA Gent II 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 1.50 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 39% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 36%, with KAA Gent II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Olympic Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 52%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KAA Gent II arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Olympic Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights