K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Royal Excel Mouscron at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Herman Vanderpoortenstadion plays host to K. Lierse S.K. versus Royal Excel Mouscron in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 3W 4D 3L at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Royal Excel Mouscron's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: K. Lierse S.K. 0W, Royal Excel Mouscron 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Royal Excel Mouscron goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 73% versus Royal Excel Mouscron 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 64% | Royal Excel Mouscron 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.896 / defence 1.382 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.724 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.280. Royal Excel Mouscron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 K. Lierse S.K. games / 23 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 33% | Draw 27% | Royal Excel Mouscron 39%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Royal Excel Mouscron as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Royal Excel Mouscron if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Royal Excel Mouscron 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 33% | Draw 27% | Royal Excel Mouscron 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.896 / def 1.382 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.724 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Royal Excel Mouscron (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 1 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 33% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Royal Excel Mouscron the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Record (3 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 0W | Draws 2 | Royal Excel Mouscron 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 0.90x the league average against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Royal Excel Mouscron's attack (0.72x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Royal Excel Mouscron Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.66
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.44
1.28
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.28 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 6W 8D 8L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form line: 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.23 for Royal Excel Mouscron. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Royal Excel Mouscron away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.30 PPG; Royal Excel Mouscron away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
2
Draws
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Royal Excel Mouscron have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 70%, Royal Excel Mouscron 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 50% (Royal Excel Mouscron). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Royal Excel Mouscron in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 40% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Royal Excel Mouscron edge out K. Lierse S.K. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Royal Excel Mouscron beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.28 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.90 / defence 1.38 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 33% | Draw 27% | Royal Excel Mouscron 39%, with Royal Excel Mouscron to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 64%, Royal Excel Mouscron 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.18 PPG, Royal Excel Mouscron 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Royal Excel Mouscron win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.