Deinze 3-3 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Dakota Arena to face Deinze in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Deinze (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dakota Arena, Deinze have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Deinze against 1.60 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deinze lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Deinze — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 70% and SK Beveren 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 61% | SK Beveren 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.38 xG and SK Beveren 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.102 / defence 1.232 | SK Beveren attack 1.025 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.245. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Deinze games / 23 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 33% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 42%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | SK Beveren 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 80% | SK Beveren 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 33% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Deinze 1.38 / SK Beveren 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.102 / def 1.232 | SK Beveren attack 1.025 / def 1.250 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.57
SK Beveren xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs SK Beveren kick off?
Deinze vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Deinze 3 - 3 SK Beveren.
Where is Deinze vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs SK Beveren part of?
Deinze vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 33% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deinze and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
Record (3 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in?
Deinze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.10) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.02x) against Deinze's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
33%
2.99
24%
4.10
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.95
1.57
SK Beveren xG
2.99
33%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Deinze and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Deinze and 1.57 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 7W 11D 5L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 11W 3D 9L from 23 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Deinze against 1.57 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.74 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 7W 11D 5L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.55 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 4-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Deinze
4
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
From 9 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Deinze, 54% for SK Beveren — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Deinze and 73% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Deinze's games and 54% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Deinze's matches and 73% of SK Beveren's.
Do Deinze and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze and SK Beveren finished level at 3-3 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.38 xG and SK Beveren 1.57 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.10 / defence 1.23 against SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 33% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 42%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 61%, SK Beveren 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.39 PPG, SK Beveren 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.