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Francs Borains cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over K. Lierse S.K..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.57 xG and Francs Borains 1.22 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Francs Borains attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 45% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 30%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Francs Borains 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Francs Borains's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.28 PPG, Francs Borains 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights